Dedummm… Dedummm… Dedummm…a dim beat coming from a distance. You barely hear it but it still fills you with discomfort and you visualize all kinds of ghosts, freaks and serial killers hiding in the bush of your own anxiety and moving as died shadows in a dark forest. The beat is only getting louder and louder turning apart the last shelter of patience and certainty you shield behind. Clasico time!

I am not enjoying the luxury of time lately to read all what the internet delivers about football on daily bases. A fast ramble across the web gave me an impression that a massive number of posts were written covering the clasico, and that’s not a surprise. There is more focus on the tactical aspect of the game this year than usual. First, because the two clubs –for the first time in recent year- are equipped with massive quality in each and every position. When two teams become that close concerning individuals, tactics turn to be the deciding factor. And secondly, because there is a Mourinho in the hood this time, and while the majority only remember Mou beating Barcelona in the champion’s league semi final last season and consider it a tactical victory for Mou over Pep, they forget that Pep outclassed Mou tactically in the group stages of the same year, beating him without even using the key players of offense. This is another reason that makes this match more interesting to follow.

Maybe, the main flaw I noticed in my fast scan on the net, is that people are predicting the team’s approach based on what we saw against Almeria (Barcelona) or Athletic Bilbao (Real Madrid). It is unlikely that the two teams make revolutionary changes –especially Pep- but the selections (or at least the tactics) will be tuned to meet the special demands of the big game. There is a special interest to see how both coaches will prepare their troops for this battle.

It is not the first time we predict that Pep will accept some compromises regarding the team approach, and he almost proved us wrong each and every time. Sometimes he was right to ignore my demands, other times he wasn’t.

It will be interesting to see if Mourinho’s priority will be checking Alves or preventing Iniesta from opening to the left flank. Di Maria’s position will define that. One option is having Di Maria on the left as represented in the photo and using Ronaldo to help defensively on Alves flank. Another option is to use Di Maria on Barca’s right to check Alves and releasing Ronaldo to a more offense oriented role. 

The above photo represents another rough presentation that is not realistic almost at any specific moment of the game. Mou will mix tactics he used at Inter against Barcelona with Rubin Kazan’s tactical lesson in defense that inspired lot of Barcelona’s opponents afterward.

If you take another look at the photo above, it is easy to notice lot of flaws in defense. Mou will make sure his team doesn’t fall in this trap often during the game. On Barca’s right, Messi-Xavi-Alves-Villa will keep being capable to break into the box through one touch and interchanging, especially that Ronaldo –no matter how disciplined he will be defensively- it is unlikely that he will keep tracking Alves that far into Real Madrid third. Ronaldo’s transition release Barca’s defense to contribute more often in the buildup and possession game. Asking Ozil to help the two holding midfielders will uncheck Busquets and lead to the same. Any of the mentioned leads Barcelona to spend more time in Real Madrid’s third than Mou can tolerate. That’s why there is a possibility that Mou sacrifice either Ozil or Higuain for Lass. Yet, there is a better option.

Rubin Kazan coach succeeded to create a system to defend Barcelona both horizontally and vertically. The common presentations we find through the internet arrange players in a very casual manner with every player being in his nominal position. When Barcelona attacks Real Madrid left flank, we will see Ramos playing as a right center back with Pepe, freeing Carvalho to create a diagonal depth between Marcelo and Alonso who moves to help closing the flank, Khedera more central and Di Maria as a pending holding midfielder (Similar to Pendev role when Inter met Barcelona in the Champion’s league). The whole positioning structure shuffles symmetrically when Barcelona attacks from the opposite flank. When Barcelona move the ball to the center, Real Madrid fullbacks will both move closer to the box to close any spaces in the center where Barcelona are more lethal than the flanks, especially with Pepe and Carvalho being dominant in the air in case Barcelona flanks crossed the ball to the box.

For this structure to work, Xavi and Busquets are the main key players Mourinho will check. Barcelona can break down this defense by moving the ball continuously from one flank to another forcing Real Madrid players to continuously re-consider their positioning and roles on the field. That’s extremely exhausting both physically and mentally. Rubin Kazan showed a successful demonstration. Attract Barca offense to one flank and compress it there by creating a vertical line that prevent Barcelona players from releasing the ball to the center or to the Area (unless if through crossing, which is not the most dangerous options for Barca offense). This means that instead of defending Barcelona across the whole width of the field, drag them to one flank and concentrate the defense to contain them there.

Though, it worth repeating that Mou will try to avoid the situation where Barcelona settle in Madrids third by putting pressure in Barca’s half to disturb the buildup. Checking Pique and Busquets will force Xavi and Iniesta to come closer to their defense to help releasing the ball forward. That situation serves Real Madrid holding midfielders who will not be under continuous pressure leading to mistakes. It will offer the defense a refreshing break. It will help Di Maria to contribute more in offense as well.

Real Madrid offense cause most danger when they win the ball in the opponent’s half. That’s why they will try to do exactly that. But it is also a given that Real Madrid is one of the best teams in the world in generating counter attacks. In Barcelona, Mou will find a great feast, a team with high defense line and offense dedication. Based on Barcelona’s initial game plan, we can visualize Real Madrid counters blowing as follows:

There are lot of talks about Ronaldo Vs Alves on the flank. There are lots of expectations that Ronaldo will expose Alves “defensive flaws”. In my opinion, this is an irrelevant argument, simply because it is not Alves job to check Ronaldo. Assuming that Alves is a traditional fullback is not true. If Alves think of Ronaldo while contributing in offense, he will run forward while looking back. That will reduce his offense contribution without really enhancing is defense output. Secondly, if Alves check Ronaldo, who will take care of Marcelo?

Here comes the first change in Barca’s selection above. The solution of Ronaldo/Marcelo combo is switching Pedro to play in front of Alves to take Marcelo defensively. Villa on the left, and Messi in the center.

Such option limit some defensive damage, but 1) It doesn’t terminate the threat completely. Ronaldo is not a pure wing. He will most probably cut into the center and take Alves on the weak foot. 2) It creates offense complications where Alves and Pedro may step on each other toes on the flank while iniesta will be forced to move to the left flank more often to stretch the field and help Villa to get into the box. That will make Barca’s center midfield more containable with Xavi and Busquets both being checked and Pique unable to move forward, leaving Puyol in one-on-one situation with Higuain.

More importantly, if you check the first photo where Barcelona in possession then the following photo representing Real Madrid counter attacks, it is obvious that checking Real Madrid key players to prevent counters will not be an easy walk for Barcelona when they lose possession. Real Madrid have many players who are good on the ball and can initiate the counters including Carvalho, Pepe, Xabi, Marcelo, Ozil, Ronaldo… They do it accurately through short or long passes to the space and they do it fast. There is a need to create a solid backbone that close spaces or at least delay Real Madrid counters till Iniesta and Co retain positions and help checking Real Madrid passes outlets.

If Pique will end up being the player who defend Ronaldo, expect Higuain to play more often on Puyol just to prevent him from creating defensive cover. Abidal will be denied on the left or kept Busy by Di Maria while Ozil mounting questions for Busquets in the center. Real Madrid can easily create numerical superiority at the attacked flank, and more importantly can create spaces on the other flank before switching the offense to expose it. We saw that clearly in the Champion’s league match against Inter.

Then you have the offense diversity and Tactical unpredictability. What if Mou switched the offense setup and used Ronaldo as a second striker?

Pep will keep being loyal to his game approach. It is tested and proved. But I still believe this is a better approach to adopt for this game (this represent the defensive setup of the selection):

Mascherano’s inclusion can solve lot of the mentioned complexity. He can close the hole behind Alves so he become the first to welcome Ronaldo when Real Madrid generates counters. It doesn’t matter if Ronaldo move on the flank or the Center, Mascherano will be there. Pique and Puyol will be more capable of dominating the area and creating depth. Abidal is an added value and he can make sure to check any threat coming from the left flank (Adriano or Maxwell will also be valid options for Left back in this case, though Abidal's defensive quality gives him the edge in this match).

As for Offense, having Mascherano in the center will release Busquets to contribute in the buildup making it more difficult for Real Madrid to contain the passing outlets in the center with Mascerano and Busquets helping Xavi and the players on the offense flank to release the ball and switch the play to the opposite flank. It means Real Madrid will start to give more attention to both flanks that focusing on one at a time. Beside being extremely demanding mentally and physically to keep tracking Barcelona’s offense switching from one flank to another, this will create more spaces in the center.

In the other hand, this structure will help driving the ball forward from the backline without Xavi’s help. Pique will be able to demand the ball forward with Mascherano covering for him. Busquets will find more space. Xavi will get the pass in Real Madrid half faster, which will help him to generate attacks before Real Madrid players structure the defense line. Busquets (or Pique) will be able to contribute in offense more frequently by making surprising runs to the box adding to the offense what the other forwards lack.

I don’t think the team will miss Pedro a lot in this case because Iniesta can execute a dual CM/LW role perfectly.

But as we all know, Pep will most probably play it SOLD, as usual. The most you can expect is a compromise between the two options by using Keita (not Mascherano). While this can solve lot of complications in the center and in the opponent box, I am not sure how it will strengthen Barcelona’s defense on the right flank.

Finally, food for thoughts:

Get ready for a titanic battle!

 

 

One year ago, when Real Madrid transfer news were creating the massive chaos across the globe and generating predictions about dominance, I wrote the controversial article “Why will real Madrid fail this season?”. Mind you, that was the same time when Kaka bought the champions’ league tickets to the Champions' league final. 

It depends on the criteria of success. The team won no titles. That’s in Real Madrid’s dictionary: A failure. In the champions’ league, they failed to pass Lyon. In the Spanish cup, and even though they used a first class selection, they failed to pass Alcorcón. In the league, they didn’t come first. They no doubt collected enough points to deserve the title. But was that a sign of their strength or the lack of balance between the big two quality and the rest is still debatable. 

Yet, nothing is either white or black. The team performance was improving every day. Manuel Pellegrini did an amazing job for a team under construction. It’s not easy for any coach to sew all the newcomers Real Madrid signed in one harmonized selection. He struggled to find the perfect balance at the beginning but with time he became more and more assure of the resources and options in hand. The title was so close. But they were competing with an established team and there was no shame in coming second. You could imagine that the following season can only get better for the coach and the club. The board of directors thought otherwise, and the coach was sacked. Welcome Mourinho.

This situation is perfectly fitting for Mourinho. Ranieri had to manage the mess when Abramovich bought Chelsea and started showering the squad by new quality signings. Mourinho came the following season with everything arranged for him to pick the fruit. At Inter, after the Calciopoli, Inter had a chance to dominate the Serie A like never before. They signed players in numbers and Mancini was the coach supposed to do the re-engineering. Mancini’s era was full of experiments with the board signing a player the first day and selling him in the very next day. Mourinho came and inherited a squad that only needed some tuning, and he was the best for the job. One can only expect more of the same with Real Madrid. Yet, while the competition against Chelsea was weak the first two seasons with Mourinho in the hood, the competition was almost nonexistent in Italy. That will not be the case in Spain. A different challenge if you look at it this way. 

Back to last season’s article “Why will real Madrid fail this season?” it worth reviewing some of the statements written there:

I do believe that Real Madrid suffered lack of leadership in defense regardless of the fact that they were solid defensively. Whenever the defense was tested it faced troubles. And I still insist that Xabi is not a holding midfielder because he needs someone behind him to create cover –and it is good to see that more of Real Madrid fans are starting to accept this argument than one year ago. 

One of the reasons Kaka struggled was the conflicts of roles between him and Xabi in the midfield, which brings me to the assumption that Mascherano was a better signing for Madrid than Xabi even though the hindsight conclusion suggests that he should have been signed instead of Kaka. The offense lack of a target man is no brainer. When they needed that static threat inside the box, they didn’t find it. The similarities between Benzema and Higuain made the life of the newcomer a bit more complicated.

They no doubt fixed lot of the bugs mentioned in the last season’s article. For example, last season they had lack of quality on the flanks. This season they are flooded with options there. Offloading Raul and Guti is also good news for the club because it will help the coach to have more control on the dressing room.

Their defenders are one season more experienced. That may help breeding the leader they need for their defense. Ramos is a world cup winner. Pep had some bad crazy moments and some injury crisis. If it didn’t hurt him psychologically then no doubt it made him stronger. Most importantly, they signed Carvalho who may prove an experienced option with leadership qualities when needed.

The players they signed last season are well adapted to the club and the liga by now. The pressure coming from price tags declined as well. They have immense depth in the squad and they have a Mourinho who do things his way, not as dictated by the board, media, or fans. 

The players they signed are hard workers with a point to prove. That’s exactly what you need beside the established stars. There is also the confidence after they proved being able to compete with Barcelona till the last moment for the title. 

Yet, there are also good reasons to cast doubts on Real Madrid hopes to clinch the title next season. Referring to the previously mentioned points, there are still questions about the holding midfielder position. There is still no player you can crown as a defensive midfielder insurance card. There is also the offense structure where they lack a fox in the box. They club has only two natural forwards. Three counting Ronaldo. The left back leaves lot to be desired and the players they signed on the flanks still have to prove their quality, especially if Ronaldo played in the Center. 

Squad size is also a worrisome issue. While depth is needed, too many players competing for playing time may cause troubles. Valdano pointed out that they will sell players. The question is: Who will they sell? He said that no Spanish player will leave, which leave us with obvious candidates: Gago, The two Diarras, and Van der Vaart. Selling Gago and the two Diarras expose the holding midfielder position. If the new signings needed time to adapt, selling Van der vaart may prove being as smart as selling Sneijder one year earlier. But even with all the mentioned being sold; there will still be lot of complexities. All depending on how will Mourinho structure his tactics. If he plays a 4-3-3, than may check some of the boxes though it will create new challenges.

With all the changes on the squad, the biggest doubt will come from the ability of creating enough chemistry on and off the pitch. That makes the argument made last season still as valid as before: