Liga:Barcelona 0 Hercules 2, Reasons behind the defeat: Pure surprise or predictable pattern?
Barcelona’s defeat against Hercules in the liga is not the end of the world. It happens. Yet, we will try to use this defeat to direct the spotlights on the pattern that seems to cause defeats for Barcelona every once and while. In this post we will discuss:
1) Football Patterns
2) The game itself: Barcelona - Hercules
Football Patterns, The underrated X-Factor:
Hercules did it! The team coming from Liga Adelante defeated the Liga BBVA’s Champions between their own fans and on their drastic field. Surprise? No doubt. Yet, the surprise is not the way Barcelona lost, but when and against whom. The way Barcelona lost is not just predictable, it’s a given for anyone who followed this team enough to already memorize Barcelona’s guideline leading to defeats. Mind you, I pointed it out when the club won all titles available (and understandably my concerns found no ears), and repeated it not only every time the team lost, but even when the team won by defeating their own weaknesses rather than the opponents. Was it last week?
That’s why I am more interested in the pattern than the result. The system rather than the players employed. In football you do not win all the time. In football there is no logic that decides who scores and who concedes. So let’s not read too much in this game’s result. If the two teams play the game again, the result will differ but the pattern will be there. It has been there since before and Barcelona lost lot of games falling in that exact pattern. This season it will be more challenging though, and this defeat may end up being the best thing for the coaching staff to reconsider lot of factors feeding this pattern; Factors that were buried under denial by praising victories when the team wins and accusing one player here or there when the team loses.
See…Football is not nanotechnology. Really. It’s much easier than that. Football clubs do not change dramatically from one game to another. We all follow football experts analyzing teams on TV or writing on football websites of international recognition. You can see how their analysis changes from praising before the game, to criticizing between the two halves to hailing at the end of the match based on the result. Whenever you hear someone creating a new story for every goal or every result, stop taking them seriously. One of the reasons I don't like writing match reviews as after few games you end up struggling to be creative enough so you avoid being repetitive.
I understand that “insightful” stories about how this fullback coughed before the game leading his team to score a goal in the second half adds more excitement to the scenery. It makes the analysis catchier and the analyst sounds smarter. But football is a bit more redundant than that, when it comes to overall performance leading to the conditional incidents that cause a goal here or an opportunity there. The deciding factors are structural aspects embedded more than coincidental moments caused.
What’s good about Barcelona is that they have a well-identified system. For clubs passing through transition periods, you can spot weaknesses one week and notice the attempts to fix it the following week. The club may change tactics, selections, and strategies trying to break an unsatisfying momentum. In such cases, more effort is needed to clarify patterns that change according to players selected and tactics applied.
That’s not the case for Barcelona. The team is playing based on a specific method since a long time. The Key players are there and the philosophy is stable. In that case, it is easier to identify the football pattern generated by the team and identify its weaknesses and strength. That’s good news for the club technical department because the improvement roadmap is more obvious. Yet, it is also good news for the opponents because they will be aware of what to expect, the threats and the opportunities. In that, it is a race between the two.
Through discussing the game against Hercules I will point out the pattern leading to Barcelona’s troubles (Underlined italic phrases are the briefings). Those who read my previous articles can tell how consistent I am when it comes to my believes regarding Barcelona's system positives and negatives, regardless of the team performance in the past two years.
Barcelona Vs Hercules
The moment the game ended, there were lots of arguments about the reasons why Barcelona lost.
Before Kickoff whistle, the selection:
Valdes, Adriano, Pique, Abidal, Maxwell, Mascherano, Keita, Iniesta, Messi, Krkic and Villa
If we all agree that we lost because we didn’t start the best lineup then case closed. Well…Put me on the list of the people who do NOT agree on that.
First of all, Barcelona only –barely- missed three starters to complete that selection. So it’s not that we played a weak lineup. Aside of the selection and the three “starters” Barcelona benched, the rest of the squad members are not qualified enough to strengthen that selection. If Barcelona can’t defeat Hercules at home using this selection of over-average (almost complete) quality, then they need to lower their season’s objectives to competing for a Euro cup spot in the Liga. Seriously.
Secondly, if we forget the result for a moment and evaluate the performance of the first half, the selection proved that it was right-taking options available in consideration. Defensively, the opponents didn’t threaten Valdes that much (Goal from set pieces). Having Puyol and Alves wouldn’t have added much, nor having Busquets (especially that Mascherano was a key performer in the first half and I doubt Busquets could have done things any better). Maybe they could have prevented the goal conceded, but the magical words here are “maybe…could have”. And maybe the team would have conceded other goals in a different way. It happened before. So if we talk about defense stability –in the first half- the selection was solid.
This selection did well during buildup and shuffled the lines forward generating threat in the offense third. So there is no reason to doubt the performance in the midfield. Possession was fine and there was enough directness that the ball moved forward even more than it usually does. As for the offense, we used three of the four players we have for that department. In that case, none of the four is considered a secondary option (They are too few for being first options). So it is safe to say our offense line was all starters – again, considering options available.
What would have Xavi added to that selection? Add more possession? So? Forced the ball forward to the offense third? It was happening already. Shooting from outside the box or running into the area jumping over everyone before heading the crosses to the net then flip in the air three times? Xavi? Hm…ok, that’s convincing. If we think about what the team needed to beat Hercules in the first half, it’s unlikely that we find Xavi’s name in the list of the survivors.
As I always say, when a team loses, the players who were not available are usually labeled as the men of the match –missed. Being a better player doesn’t mean that you can solve all the problems. Sometimes things get a bit more thrilling.
What is more significant is that the game was actually lost in the second half, not the first. And I will come back to that later. Barcelona’s performance was more catastrophic after calling Xavi and Pedro to the rescue, instead of Bojan and a “sub”. And before any assumptions, the opponent in the second half played an identical approach to the first half. In fact, teams are usually more fragile in the second half against Barcelona. So there is no argument there.
In fact, if I want to pick something against the selection, I will repeat something I mentioned last season: Keep your cards close to your chest by having a game changer on the bench. Last season when Messi passed through a bad period of Fatigue and lack of form I demanded that in some games it is better to keep him on the bench and use someone else –even Jeffren- in the first half to exhaust the opponent then bring Messi in the second half to do his magic. In my game preview I kept Messi on the bench for that reason. That brings me to one of the Pattern’s features: Miscalculating players’ readiness/urgency especially after long breaks, international games, or Squad depth temporary crises. Review past seasons and you will see that feature boldly.
Game kickoff, what went wrong in the first half?
In the first half, there was no problem with defense and midfield. The problem was the offense setup. We played exactly the same as last season but with one player less (Bojan took one of the offense places but didn’t use it).
One of the Pattern features is the lack of threat inside the box when the team moves forward. Now imagine your nine being out of the line. Who was supposed to score in the first half with Villa playing on the left and Messi running all over the place while Bojan being the fox in the box? Pique created more threat in the box that the three forwards in the first half. Is there anything more to prove a point?
Defense and midfield did –relatively- a decent job in the first half but offense wise the team was fruitless. It doesn’t matter if you switch Bojan and Villa positions as 1) They are identical. 2) They were both playing position-free anyway.
One more point about Mascherano. First, I think the card was harsh if you take in consideration that both players were grabbing each other. The foul where there was a call for another call was tactical. But it was completely fitting to the guidelines of black magic defense book. It deserves no card but almost, as he kept his body in contact with the opponent forcing him to lose balance without actually fouling him. That’s just a detail for the record. What impressed me most is that he was completely aware of his responsibilities on the field even though it was the first game. Watch that first half again and keep an eye on his movement with respect to his teammates, especially the defenders. One of the reasons for Pique’s presence in the opponent box more often was Mascherano’s presence that made Pique feels secured to delay his transition without leaving lot of defensive mess behind.
The second half: The right mistakes and the game was lost
The team entered the dressing room one goal behind. If you watch the first half again, they didn’t perform impressively but it was safe to say they didn’t deserve to lose (draw was fair). Pep made two changes directly: Mascherano and Bojan out, Xavi and Pedro in.
I may understand taking Mascherano out as he had a yellow card and for a player who defend with pride “you can only score on my dead body!” it was probably a safe call. Bojan sub is no brainer. I feel for the boy. He was promoted early to the first team which hammered his development. And now he is the nine of Barcelona. Let’s stop for a moment and think about it. Let’s think about who were Barcelona’s nines through the history of the club to understand Bojan’s problem. That was too early. TOO early! I really hope he makes a legendary miraculous improvement, because that’s what he needs to rescue his career.
Mascherano and Bojan out is an ok decision, but Xavi and Pedro in was a mistake. That sub generated two additional features from the defeating pattern:
Two offense oriented fullbacks with one holding midfielder
For the thousand times I write this, you can’t use two offense oriented fullbacks with one holding midfielder in front of them. The second half was defensively catastrophic but it’s not just because Abidal played instead of Puyol. Last season with Puyol and Pique as Center backs the team had problems almost every time Alves and Maxwell were used together with a holding midfielder in front. It is true that Mascherano was the only pure holding midfielder in the first half, but 1) That’s Mascherano. If there is any player who can do it, that’s him. 2) Keita was there to help him where needed. 3) In the second half we didn’t even have a holding midfielder but a Keita. That’s not counted. In fact this point was one of two points reminded me of the game between Spain and Switzerland. Remember wehat happened when Busquets was subbed out, leaving Xabi as a holding midfielder. Del bouquet didn’t dare to do it again after that match.
Terminated any chance for any threat inside the opponent box A.K.A fruitless toothless possession
To score a goal, the team can rely on moments of individual brilliance leading to a pass in the space or dribbling the ball to the net. But when there are no spaces and the offense become static, there is a need for long shots and crosses into the box. That’s the alphabetic of offense. After the first half, it was obvious that the team lack presence in the box and the opponent is well organized and may not offer any spaces.
By moving Keita to the holding midfielder position, Barcelona terminated the offense contribution of the only midfielder in the selection who can run to the box or take long shots. From there on, Hercules only concern was making sure to implement zonal marking by crowding players in the center to close spaces in front of their keeper. Defending the flanks became secondary as there is no big concern if Adriano and Maxwell cross. Their defense avoided being stretched to the flanks and the Lack of long shots helped Hercules defense to keep on defending deep.
Everyone doing everything=no one doing the special things
In a previous article, I pointed out the reasons why the offense didn’t click well last season. I will not repeat it here but I can’t stress enough on the need to distribute the players well behind, along with, and in front of the ball. During buildup, when Messi over-contribute in the buildup and keep demanding secured safe passes in the midfield rather than moving forward to accompany Villa the forward will get isolated and the offense will not work.
One of the reasons why Henry-Eto’o-Messi combination clicked perfectly was that the three players were always demanding the ball in the offense department. Even When Iniesta played on the flank Messi and Eto’o slicing through the opponent defense shuffled the lines up fast and deadly. What happened last season was –as Pep mentioned- Messi was given more freedom to move deep so he receives the ball more often and Henry dropped dead leaving Ibra who is originally a player who like to link with the midfield as well. The outcome was an offense line playing in the midfield. The offense lacked the acceleration needed to catch the opponents’ defense by surprise. Of course, Ibra was blamed. Now I can see Villa being the following victim.
Even a striker who masters playing in the liga need time to adapt (and get adapted to) in a new team. Worry not, unlike Ibra, Villa is already a member in the old guards’ brotherhood of Barcelona’s squad. He will most likely get enough support to click-quick. It is a useless argument now to discuss if Villa can play in the center or not. There is no choice, right? I believe he can do great there in some matches while he will struggle some other times. To make his life easier there is a need to make sure he is not isolated in front (Messi need to stay close to him). Midfield Keita-like support in the box will be vital as well.
It goes without saying that I still believe he is better doing Henry's job than Ibra's. Thats why I wanted Barcelona to get Ibra in the first place and thats why I was excited about Villa-Ibra-Messi offense for this season.
Pep should have considered using Busquets in the second half instead of Mascherano and Xavi instead of Bojan, then moving Iniesta to play in the midfield beside Xavi while giving orders to Messi and Villa to shuffle the lines forward instead of dropping deep. Keita should have played in front of Xavi-Iniesta and not behind them so he can run into the box more often creating the normal chaos he cause there and either getting advantage of the wasted crosses or catching the center backs attention so that Messi and Villa can take advantage of the holes created.
I didn't only remember the first game for Spain in the world cup while watching Barcelona against Hercules, but I also remembered the preview of world cup semi final between Germany and Spain and the reasons I had to pick Torres in the starting lineup, regardless of his form. Villa needs a Torres, or a prerequisite support coming from the midfield. Point taken.
During the summer, I made a remark that if Barcelona sells Ibrahimovic, Pep may end up using either Pique or Busquets as a striker. That was half a joke, half a belief. It is not a coincidence that even in the second half Pique was the most dangerous player for Barcelona. I was even hopeful that after the second goal, Pep will move him permanently to camp in the box after bringing another Center back to cover his position. It will take lot of courage –and craziness- for Pep to try an odd option making my joke true. But what’s more certain is that there is a need to keep one of the big bulls close to the box all the time, or at least when things get complicated.
This team can win big things counting of the quality of the individuals. It worked before. Yet, you can put a higher bet if the team creates a powerful system that matches the brilliance of the players available. Time for Pep to do a pep magic, as well as he does Pep talks.
Posted by Ramzi
on 10:11.
Filed under
The match proved how we miss the prescence of a tall big striker in the box,Pep likes Messi as a a false number nine but he needs spaces to play there,in 90% of our matches in the Camp Nou we will struggle,we have 3 options to play centrally(Villa-Messi-Bojan) and the 3 are quite similar,they are all players who need space to deleiver,I wont blame Pep for letting Ibra because it looks that it was not a sporting decision,now we need another type os striker,a talll player who can hold the ball and create space for Messi-Villa,be it Llorente or Emile Heskey or even Gerard Pique,I can see the current team conquering in away matches,struggling against organised teams in the Camp Nou,Villa is going to be a victim and I can see Bojan ending where many of our the wonder boys ended,I know its only ane match but I can see a bad season for us :(
I love Llorente :). He seems so pure and old fashioned. Unlike other tall players, he actually scores a lot of headers. I wouldn't be against a 10m bid for Llorente in January. I don't predict a bad season, and I expect some Pep magic.